Saturday, February 4, 2012

Unemployment Rate Drop Faked

Unemployment Rate Drop Faked

As more people drop off of unemployment benefits, after 3 years of collecting unemployment, the already fake unemployment rate drops, almost like a rock.

Understand, there are no new jobs and the millions that were lost are not coming back. If you liberals / RINOs cannot understand this, I don't know what else to say to you.

Deer in Headlights
The government tracks who is ON unemployment. Once your unemployment payments stop, and you cannot receive any more, you fall off the government's unemployment list. So yes, in 2009 millions lost their jobs, after 3 years of collecting unemployment they used up all their payments and cannot get any more. There was not people being hired by the millions all of a sudden. It would take millions upon millions of people getting a job for the unemployment rate to drop so drastically. However, the real explanation of millions using up their unemployment explains the drop.

"The U.S. economy created jobs at the fastest pace in nine months in January, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 8.3 percent, its lowest level in three years, since just after Obama took office.

 The report meant that unemployment has dropped every month since August, when it was 9.1 percent." - Reuters
The good folks at ZeroHedge [some schmo that goes by the name of Tyler Durden *sigh*][ no i'm not a fan Tyler ] explained it best, so as not to confuse the idiot public.

"A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that's not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. As for the quality of jobs, as withholding taxes roll over Year over year, it can only mean that the US is replacing high paying FIRE jobs with low paying construction and manufacturing. So much for the improvement.

This is the largest absolute jump in 'Persons Not In Labor Force' on record... and biggest percentage jump in 30 years."

Floyd Norris of The New York Times says:

"How many jobs did the American economy add in January?

The Labor Department estimated on Friday that the economy gained 243,000 jobs.

The department also estimated that the economy lost 2,689,000 jobs in the month.

The difference in the two numbers is in seasonal adjustment. Employment always falls in January, as temporary Christmas jobs end. So the government applies seasonal adjustment factors in an effort to discern the real trend of the economy apart from seasonal fluctuations. The actual survey showed the big loss in jobs. The seasonal adjustments produced the reported gain of 243,000 jobs.

A reason to doubt the number is that there has been a tendency in this cycle for the seasonal factors to overstate moves, in both directions. Labor mobility is down, as fewer workers quit to seek better jobs and employers both hire and fire fewer people than they used to do. If the seasonal adjustment was too large, then the gain should be smaller."
And for a real kick in the nuts, we have Numerian over at The Economic Populist reporting:

First, ever since the credit crisis of 2008, there has been a trend in the unemployment report that shows a declining participation rate in the job market. While a whopping number of jobs were created in January, a far larger number of people left the labor force - 1,752,000 in fact. The percent of the total working population who did not have jobs rose to 36.7%, an all time high. It’s no wonder the unemployment rate fell, when the denominator shrinks so markedly. The total number of people employed fell by 737,000. So what do you want to celebrate – the 243,000 who got jobs, or the million or so people who dropped by the wayside and are no longer counted in the data?

To put it bluntly, Obama is not your savior and there was no job creation that rocked 2 million strong in the month of January. People are not working, so much, that their not working dropped them off the list, to the tune of 1.2 million people gone off list. If you account for those people, unemployment is going strong at 10.9%. The numbers reported are faked.

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